Because Gen Z was the turning point in the 2024 election and Dhruv Rathee was the Man of the Match. The BJP focused on taking over TV news channels and Modi spoke at a lot of rallies. But these are all boomer communication strategies which do not appeal to Gen Z voters. On the other hand, the Congress used social media and YouTubers like Dhruv to reach Gen Z voters. Just look at the number of views that Dhruv gets: it's in the millions. This guy literally swung 30-40 seats single-handedly.

The other factor is that Gen Z is very liberal and does not like Modi and Hindutva. Just look at LI comments as a sample. A pro-Modi comment gets lots of downvotes. LI readers are not elites living in a bubble, they are your average Gen Z voter.

The big message of this election is the the BJP is losing for sure in 2029, By 2029, Gen Z will outnumber boomers and Gen Alpha will be first-time voters. The Congress will get a landslide victory. IMO Dhruv Rathee will get a Cabinet position in 2029 and may even be a PM candidate.

for any of that to be true- you have to show data on what percentage of the general vote share is comprised of GenZ voters. Do you have that data?

I find it highly suspect to think a tiny number of urvan young voters could produce results like this- consider it might be farmers and labourers and dalits and women.

Avg HATSAAP university guy

Dhruv rathee had negligible impact on elections except parroting narratives of Congress. Stop hyping him up. Plus BJP may or may not lost 2029.

BJP is going to get aggressive for next elections. This election just gave them a reality check of corruption and taking criminals from other parties.

Lol..yeh aagye gyaan ke chode...genz did nothing. Go check the data, voter turnout was low especially in northern states. Moreover what happened is caste happened. The same old castism and reservation became the downfall of BJP esp in UP and MH. Except UC, every caste votes for SP or INC, especially since BSP was not a factor. So the approx 40 to SP is what caused immense damage to even cross 273.

1. Rural distress. This is what is leading to underperformance in UP, especially Purvaanchal.

2. Farmers in the North. Wipe out in Punjab as expected, but significant losses in Haryana, Rajasthan and Western UP which are all areas with significant Jaat population. Moreover, in both Haryana and Rajasthan, the BJP has appointed weird CMs - they are neither Jaat nor Rajput. This has led to reversals.

3. Over-enthusiastically breaking down parties - in Maharashtra where both SS UBT & NCP SP are doing much better than Sena & NCP AP. BJP engineered breakaways of MLAs but the cadre did not shift or like this one bit.

4. Language and culture centralization issues - vis-a-vis states like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal respectively. The BJP is seen as the anti-federal force in both states and is facing the same problem that Congress did in both states when it was the big thing in Delhi.

...

The NDA is around 295 right now, but 15 + 15 of these are JDU and TDP. Both Nitish and Chandra Babu are wily foxes who can jump ship. Additionally, Sena's 6 and NCP AP's 2 may consider a 'ghar-vaapsi'. The BJP may be forced to have a less forceful (possibly Rajnath) or more developmental (like Gadkari) PM.

Just now they did a demographic analysis on India Today. Here's what happened:

1. NDA did well in seats dominated by UCs and STs

2. INDIA did well in seats dominated by Muslims and SCs.

3. In OBC seats it was a mixed picture: Jats and Yadavas went with INDIA, others went with NDA.

Overall, NDA and INDIA came close, but NDA pulls through narrowly because of good performances in certain swing states.

NDA has only pulled through because they got Nitish and Chandrababu Naidu. These guys are going to take a pound of flesh from Modi and Shah. They will take away 5+ ministries each including some big ones. Rail phir Bihar aa rahi hai, Naidu is going to take things like Commerce or Civil Aviation etc.

If I.N.D.I.A alliance forms expect a fractured government. Every few months someone will demand something. We may also see a new PM every 6-12 months like Nepal. However this will hamper every program and policy.

If BJP forms government, it will not be stable or strong enough to push things like UCC or CAA or NRC. Moreover they will have CBN & Nitish hanging on top of them like a damocles sword ready to eat more and more.

So, whichever government does form will be much weaker than the last 2 terms. Expect economic reforms to slow down, social freebies to be given, reservation to be increased and even introduced in private sector and moreover a fun next 5 years.

Par Hume kya ? Hum toh wohi office jake, gaand ghisa ke, do Paisa kuma ke, tax deke, mar jayenge.

This goes to prove that national security is the only "divisively-uniting" issue in recent Indian politics which can get you "300 par" votes. The Pakistan effect barely existed this time(compared to 2019). China seemed a dead topic. Religion as a topic can only take you so far(especially given that it's a divisive topic with no uniting element except for the ones who may "immediately benefit" from it). A "nationwide huddling" tendency behind a strong man(like Modi) only exists when national security is the overarching theme.

To illustrate: the last election did feel divisive but it felt like Modi made a war cry against those working against the nation. Which tends to pull in the voters usually in the "grey" against Modi's Leviathan. This time it was a dirty property battle for the national control of resources, with Modi not shying away from pointing out which side should get the resources. The latter narrative almost never gets you votes from the grey(usually the rural votes) because rural India has far too often learnt that in India that though "they" maybe promised control, rural India often never gets to enjoy it.

1. Agniveer Scheme -

Pissed off a lot of Haryana, Punjab, Himachal, Uttarakhand, UP youth. Very badly.

Lack of Government Jobs - Because of BJPs fiscal conservative policy they slashed government recruitment.

India is a poor country. Crores of youth dream of the few government jobs. When these few government jobs are cut. It will make youth anrgy.

2. Lack of Freebies

Rahul promised freebies which cannot be given even if entire Indian budget is given as freebies.

Women are BJP Voters. INDIA ALLIANCE got women voters because of FREEBIES politics.

3. Caste Politics

Hindus are not united. They will never be. But opposition did a good job at Caste politics.

BJP never understood caste dynamics.

Caste Politics works very well in India. That's why SP won in UP.

MUSLIM Unity - Muslims strategically voted for India Alliance.

4. Youth Unemployment

India could never make jobs like China. Even with Modi's reforms. Employment generation was very slow.

Just imagine this -

India's biggest tier 1 law firm Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas and Trilegal has less than 1000 lawyers.

One Chinese tier 1 firm (DENTONS) has 7000 lawyers within China prc and 3000 outside.

India never had manufacturing jobs even with Modi reforms.

China generated 40 crore manufacturing jobs. India barely has generated 4 crore manufacturing jobs. Very low.

5. Dhruv Rathee, Better INDIA Alliance PR

BJP got God complex.

6. RSS BJP Infighting

BJP and RSS are at a cold ear over past 3 years. RSS did all dirty work for BJP and never got any credit. This time RSS didn't work for BJP. And taught them a lesson.

7. Big bang reforms without understanding people's choices

For Example -

Farm Laws, Labour Reforms are excellent for the country. But people hate it. You loose votes when you do it.

India doesn't do reforms unless we have a gun pointed at us (LPG Reforms at 1990s and Nuclear Testing happened because we had no option)

All you woke kids on LI who voted out the BJP and are celebrating: I hope you realise what you have done:

- The political discourse now shifts to reservation and subsidies, instead of privatising inefficient PSUs and enacting market-friendly reforms.

- India’s efforts to compete with China as an economic hub just took a big blow.

- If your parents invest in stocks and shares, or even mutual funds, their funds almost certainly got depleted and will probably be in the red for a long time. If you were expecting that they would fund an LLM abroad for you with their investments, ask them if they can still do so.

Honestly, looking at the comments on LI, it’s really time they replace the Marxist dinosaurs teaching economics at NLUs with people trained in neoclassical economic theory, who can familiarise students with Friedman and Bhagwati. Also, Thomas Sowell should be compulsory reading.

1. The discourse has always been about that in the country. Including in the BJP ruled states. You're being myopic.

2. BJP hasn't really enacted any market friendly reform in the last decade, which is why the inequality, unemployment, inflation and everything else have been on the rise. You are just pretending that the few people making a quick buck at the share market is worth all that. Newsflash, the market was strong even before NDA came into power. By the way, long term mutual fund investors are fine with the market, it's people who are short sighted and go for shortcuts who lost out. If your parents are like that, then you have my condolences.

3. I thought you don't want largesse? So why take parents' money for an LLM? Get a job, save up or get scholarships. Use that merit that you flaunt.

4. People do read all types of works. The key is not to start believing in one blindly. You should try that out sometime.

I had posted on LI that Congress would get more seats because of their election manifesto promise to consider legalising same-same marriages. Queer people and the youth would vote Congress for this. You all mocked me. Well, what do you have to say now? I have been clearly proved right.

Reasons:

1. Muslim vote bank consolidation pan India. Because the BJP has treated Muslims badly.

2. Dalits in UP who vote for Mayawati shifting to the Congress and Samajwadi party. Because Dalits were attracted by Rahul Gandhi’s promise of private sector reservations.

3. In West Bengal, where there is high unemployment and lack of industries, poor people voting for Mamata Banerjee because she increased the Lakshmir Bhandar dole amount. Because poor and unemployed people need doles and will take it from whoever gives it.

4. People in Maharashtra rejecting the BJP’s dirty politics of splitting parties and the poor performance of CM Shinde.

5. Well-off Hindu BJP voters not voting in high numbers pan India because of the heatwave, travelling on holiday etc.

6. Because Gen Z is unemployed and frustrated, as evident from the result in Punjab where independent candidates demanding Khalistan won, including one in jail.

7. Because Gen Z follows Dhruv Rathee.

Lack of education and family planning among certain segments of the population means that we are saddled with millions of jobless, unemployable youth. What we saw is this section of the population venting its anger, which the opposition parties cleverly channelised using the rhetoric of reservation, welfarism, anti-capitalism and identity politics.

As a believer in free markets and meritocracy, and an opponent of welfarism and identity politics, I worry about the future of the country and my own future. My sister has settled abroad and I will try to do the same now.

BJP has given its share of doles such as in MP where it reaped the benefits. However, Bengal didn't vote in favour of the doles, but against BJP. The message is clear, stop creating hate in the name of religion and treating corruption as usual the moment those people come into your fold. From inflation to rise in gas prices, demonetisation, lockdown randomness, hate speeches, NRC, creating uproar in the name of temples, none of these will work for BJP in that region. Ever.

Absolute nonsense. I live in Bengal and can assure you that the poor people voted for TMC only because of doles, plus the TMC has a 30% Muslim vote share locked anyway.

Also, remember that the anti-TMC votes outnumber TMC votes. If you combine the Left, Cong and BJP vote shares, it’s higher.

Here is the #1 reason: the share of 18-25 years olds is increasing and senior citizens are passing away. This young demographic is naturally left-leaning. They also watch only social media, not TV channels. All over the world social media is dominated by left-liberal influencers. I mean, every second college student in India has a Palestine flag and pronouns in their bio. In India, more people watch Dhruv Rathee than news channels.

Aww...it hurt you that your God of Gods didn't get to break and sell the country to Adani and his ilk, we understand. However, the country had existed and attained greatness before he came into power and it will continue doing so long after he's gone. If you're having reservation nightmares, then go and seek therapy in the meanwhile.