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2. BJP hasn't really enacted any market friendly reform in the last decade, which is why the inequality, unemployment, inflation and everything else have been on the rise. You are just pretending that the few people making a quick buck at the share market is worth all that. Newsflash, the market was strong even before NDA came into power. By the way, long term mutual fund investors are fine with the market, it's people who are short sighted and go for shortcuts who lost out. If your parents are like that, then you have my condolences.
3. I thought you don't want largesse? So why take parents' money for an LLM? Get a job, save up or get scholarships. Use that merit that you flaunt.
4. People do read all types of works. The key is not to start believing in one blindly. You should try that out sometime.
And you think you're unbiased?
- The political discourse now shifts to reservation and subsidies, instead of privatising inefficient PSUs and enacting market-friendly reforms.
- India’s efforts to compete with China as an economic hub just took a big blow.
- If your parents invest in stocks and shares, or even mutual funds, their funds almost certainly got depleted and will probably be in the red for a long time. If you were expecting that they would fund an LLM abroad for you with their investments, ask them if they can still do so.
Honestly, looking at the comments on LI, it’s really time they replace the Marxist dinosaurs teaching economics at NLUs with people trained in neoclassical economic theory, who can familiarise students with Friedman and Bhagwati. Also, Thomas Sowell should be compulsory reading.
Also, remember that the anti-TMC votes outnumber TMC votes. If you combine the Left, Cong and BJP vote shares, it’s higher.
As a believer in free markets and meritocracy, and an opponent of welfarism and identity politics, I worry about the future of the country and my own future. My sister has settled abroad and I will try to do the same now.
If CBN sticks with NDA its modi sarkar all the way
1. Muslim vote bank consolidation pan India. Because the BJP has treated Muslims badly.
2. Dalits in UP who vote for Mayawati shifting to the Congress and Samajwadi party. Because Dalits were attracted by Rahul Gandhi’s promise of private sector reservations.
3. In West Bengal, where there is high unemployment and lack of industries, poor people voting for Mamata Banerjee because she increased the Lakshmir Bhandar dole amount. Because poor and unemployed people need doles and will take it from whoever gives it.
4. People in Maharashtra rejecting the BJP’s dirty politics of splitting parties and the poor performance of CM Shinde.
5. Well-off Hindu BJP voters not voting in high numbers pan India because of the heatwave, travelling on holiday etc.
6. Because Gen Z is unemployed and frustrated, as evident from the result in Punjab where independent candidates demanding Khalistan won, including one in jail.
7. Because Gen Z follows Dhruv Rathee.
Pissed off a lot of Haryana, Punjab, Himachal, Uttarakhand, UP youth. Very badly.
Lack of Government Jobs - Because of BJPs fiscal conservative policy they slashed government recruitment.
India is a poor country. Crores of youth dream of the few government jobs. When these few government jobs are cut. It will make youth anrgy.
2. Lack of Freebies
Rahul promised freebies which cannot be given even if entire Indian budget is given as freebies.
Women are BJP Voters. INDIA ALLIANCE got women voters because of FREEBIES politics.
3. Caste Politics
Hindus are not united. They will never be. But opposition did a good job at Caste politics.
BJP never understood caste dynamics.
Caste Politics works very well in India. That's why SP won in UP.
MUSLIM Unity - Muslims strategically voted for India Alliance.
4. Youth Unemployment
India could never make jobs like China. Even with Modi's reforms. Employment generation was very slow.
Just imagine this -
India's biggest tier 1 law firm Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas and Trilegal has less than 1000 lawyers.
One Chinese tier 1 firm (DENTONS) has 7000 lawyers within China prc and 3000 outside.
India never had manufacturing jobs even with Modi reforms.
China generated 40 crore manufacturing jobs. India barely has generated 4 crore manufacturing jobs. Very low.
5. Dhruv Rathee, Better INDIA Alliance PR
BJP got God complex.
6. RSS BJP Infighting
BJP and RSS are at a cold ear over past 3 years. RSS did all dirty work for BJP and never got any credit. This time RSS didn't work for BJP. And taught them a lesson.
7. Big bang reforms without understanding people's choices
For Example -
Farm Laws, Labour Reforms are excellent for the country. But people hate it. You loose votes when you do it.
India doesn't do reforms unless we have a gun pointed at us (LPG Reforms at 1990s and Nuclear Testing happened because we had no option)
Do you want a stipend for internships where all you do is make lists of documents that any 10th pass can make? Is that not a freebie then.
To illustrate: the last election did feel divisive but it felt like Modi made a war cry against those working against the nation. Which tends to pull in the voters usually in the "grey" against Modi's Leviathan. This time it was a dirty property battle for the national control of resources, with Modi not shying away from pointing out which side should get the resources. The latter narrative almost never gets you votes from the grey(usually the rural votes) because rural India has far too often learnt that in India that though "they" maybe promised control, rural India often never gets to enjoy it.
If BJP forms government, it will not be stable or strong enough to push things like UCC or CAA or NRC. Moreover they will have CBN & Nitish hanging on top of them like a damocles sword ready to eat more and more.
So, whichever government does form will be much weaker than the last 2 terms. Expect economic reforms to slow down, social freebies to be given, reservation to be increased and even introduced in private sector and moreover a fun next 5 years.
Par Hume kya ? Hum toh wohi office jake, gaand ghisa ke, do Paisa kuma ke, tax deke, mar jayenge.
Dhruv rathee had negligible impact on elections except parroting narratives of Congress. Stop hyping him up. Plus BJP may or may not lost 2029.
BJP is going to get aggressive for next elections. This election just gave them a reality check of corruption and taking criminals from other parties.
Muslims + Dalits + Tribals + Yadavs + Marathas + Jats + Sikhs + Christians >>>> Brahmins + Kshatriyas + Baniyas + a few niche SC/ST/OBC groups.
1. NDA did well in seats dominated by UCs and STs
2. INDIA did well in seats dominated by Muslims and SCs.
3. In OBC seats it was a mixed picture: Jats and Yadavas went with INDIA, others went with NDA.
Overall, NDA and INDIA came close, but NDA pulls through narrowly because of good performances in certain swing states.
Nitish will switch (State elections coming soon)
CBN offered PM post - switches (Development guy - consensus candidate)
Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions move back to the original formation (Maha election next)
2. Farmers in the North. Wipe out in Punjab as expected, but significant losses in Haryana, Rajasthan and Western UP which are all areas with significant Jaat population. Moreover, in both Haryana and Rajasthan, the BJP has appointed weird CMs - they are neither Jaat nor Rajput. This has led to reversals.
3. Over-enthusiastically breaking down parties - in Maharashtra where both SS UBT & NCP SP are doing much better than Sena & NCP AP. BJP engineered breakaways of MLAs but the cadre did not shift or like this one bit.
4. Language and culture centralization issues - vis-a-vis states like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal respectively. The BJP is seen as the anti-federal force in both states and is facing the same problem that Congress did in both states when it was the big thing in Delhi.
...
The NDA is around 295 right now, but 15 + 15 of these are JDU and TDP. Both Nitish and Chandra Babu are wily foxes who can jump ship. Additionally, Sena's 6 and NCP AP's 2 may consider a 'ghar-vaapsi'. The BJP may be forced to have a less forceful (possibly Rajnath) or more developmental (like Gadkari) PM.
I find it highly suspect to think a tiny number of urvan young voters could produce results like this- consider it might be farmers and labourers and dalits and women.
Lesson: Middle class people in big cities love Modi, but poor people in villages and small towns don't care. The latter is the majority.
The other factor is that Gen Z is very liberal and does not like Modi and Hindutva. Just look at LI comments as a sample. A pro-Modi comment gets lots of downvotes. LI readers are not elites living in a bubble, they are your average Gen Z voter.
The big message of this election is the the BJP is losing for sure in 2029, By 2029, Gen Z will outnumber boomers and Gen Alpha will be first-time voters. The Congress will get a landslide victory. IMO Dhruv Rathee will get a Cabinet position in 2029 and may even be a PM candidate.