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What I feel is that it's a myopic way to look at it. The legal industry has been on this spree for quite some time now, especially after the creation of IBBI in 2016. What we generally see in hirings are just T1 boutique firms recruitments, we tend to almost ignore the T2/T3/T4 firms that also expands steadily. The current trend projects that if T1 firms continue their spree then the it would be eating up the potential jobs takers from T2/T3/T4 firms. And this would ultimately result in a higher billable rates as a norm even for organisations that previously preferred a cheaper alternatives as the T1 are gaining more market share.
It's totally a speculation and there must be quite a few loopholes as well, but that seems to me a logical outcome of the current trend.
A fresher joining in 2022 will be eligible for partnership in 2031. The firm, by then should have grown to at least 10x its current size (There's no point making someone partner without at least a certain number of people at a sub-ordinate level in the team).
This is worrying because no law firm internationally (barring Swiss Verein concerns) has an employee strength greater than 3k. Even the largest US/UK ones are responsible while hiring and do not take on any more than their revenue dictates.
The only consequence, in my opinion, of this mindless hiring spree will be a sudden slowdown in fresher recruitment in the coming few years and as a result a change from PQE-based promotion to a 'merit' based one where a 9 PQE does not just make you a Partner in line with US practice.
I'd love to know if you all share the same concern!
Thanks.