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The Iran war is again just representative of how cyclical the industry is. Last year also till May the amount of listings were low, but have shot up later.
To start with, SEBI recently introduced the MB Regulations (link to a discussion on this platform - https://www.legallyindia.com/convos/topic/463542-did-sebi-just-end-the-cap-marks-practice-at-law-firms). While there have been reassurances that it does not 'kill' the practice area, it definitely does take a hit on the components being billed. Moreover, since core MB work would now have to be worked up internally, the amount being shelled out for work other than drafting and DD would dip. I could be wrong about this though; please correct me if I am.
Secondly, an AI boom is around the corner. While it is a common concern across all practice areas, cap marks appears to be impacted more due to the generic and clerical nature of work. Most of the work until an SA level has been DD anyway, something AI could take over with ease. While other areas require some, or often a lot, application of law, cap marks requires it disproportionately lesser. Wondering how teams would deploy and get work done with Claude in minutes which would take nights and weeks.
Lastly, the overall geopolitical and economic conditions appear bleak. Markets have weakened post the Iran war and may go lower. While we do have some big IPOs lined up for later this year, the number of companies looking to hit the bourses goes down in a stagnant or bearish market. Will be important to see how much new work comes in over the next year or so.
Overall, do we see Cap Marks hirings dropping this year in comparison to other teams. Insiders (pun intended), please share your wisdom.