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Broadly, lawyers/law grads have 6 categories of career paths:
1. Litigation
2. Law firms
3. In House (please note both 2 and 3 include foreign firms as well)
4. Govt sector (may/may not be law related)
5. Policy/NGO/etc.
6. Others
No. 6 will be too broad to speculate upon, so let's not get into that. One may pursue law and maybe be working in a LPO Unit or something. Let's leave it aside. Another assumption to make is that, we'll take a cutoff of 5 years PQE for young lawyers.
No. 4, if not contractual, will be insulated. If contractual, perhaps say a Judicial Law Clerk (yes, won't be govt, but still), they may get affected once their contract ends.
Nos. 3 and 5 will be very vulnerable. No. 5 especially so because they perhaps won't have a clear cut source of funding, or their income would be irregular. No. 3 - given the young age, companies would cut down on them and lay them off. Senior ones would most likely be retained if not fired as well.
No.2 may fire young lawyers. Mostly it would not. But hiring freeze would be there. Not so vulnerable for those already inside. Very vulnerable to those outside. Given the nature of the work No. 2 engages in, which is clearly anti-thetical to law's growth, they'd mostly survive given their monotonous paperwork-oriented nature of work.
No. 1 -depends. While they will not be out of work, their earnings may reduce, but since its a profession, they have no salaries. Those who consider working under a senior for a salary are slaves and an insult to the profession so let's not consider them. Graduates would face issues, but since there is no hiring in this sector for it being a profession, the only impact is the reduction in income.
All these aside, you know people always say that a recession is coming. You say "very respected analysts". They have always claimed something like that. Let us not fear monger into this.
Even your analysis makes no sense. You say No. 6 is "too broad" so you wouldn't want to speculate. Isn't the entirety of your answer...speculation? Besides, if you didn't want to speculate, why write about it in the first place?
Your line of reasoning has no coherence. You've said "[w]hile they will not be out of work, their earnings may reduce, but since its a profession, they have no salaries" in a single sentence. What does part A and B have to do with part C and D have to do with...a recession. What does anything have to do with anything.
I'm sorry, I've had a fifteen hour day and I was trying to scroll through LI to take a break before sleeping. Your answer broke me. I couldn't resist responding. I hope you're not a lawyer yet. Dear God.
On speculation - No. 6 entails a whole spectrum of different things - from working as a journalist to being a content creator. There is no way to comment on that. Any rational person would understand that.
On the part where you say there is no coherence - let me make it clear if you failed to understand - those in litigation cannot be considered to be out of work - you are in a profession - you go to courts/tribunals/forums/arbitrations, do conferences, etc. - that's your work. The volume may decrease, like it did during covid - and as such, the earnings would reduce, because hey, they are getting less matters to do. As for salaries - the sentence is clear and logically sound - there are no salaries in a profession, there are only fees - this is a basic Class 11 business studies knowledge. Even if someone did not take commerce, as someone who did a professional course, like your goodself, you should be able to understand and KNOW that. What does that have to do with a recession - as I clearly stated - that during times of economic crises, for someone who is a junior, they may have less work because of the crises and as such earn less
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