This is being discussed on social media as well. The logic is simple. The rich and middle-class, who are the BJP’s core voters and predominantly upper caste, will stay at home because they won’t be able to bear the heat. But the poor will turn out in huge numbers as they always do. No doubt many poor people will vote for the BJP, but a sizeable percentage of the poor are lower castes and Muslims, who are traditionally not BJP voters. Their combined vote could swing enough seats in favour of the opposition parties and make Modi lose.
Not just heatwave but I feel Modi will genuinely lose. All my friends in college will be voting against Modi. Don't underestimate the impact of Rahul Gandhi's promise on same-sex marriages. It can lead to a 4 to 5 % swing in favour of Congress I feel.
Most of the people who are LGBTQ supporters would not have anyway voted for BJP. The fact that Congress has a LGBTQ-aligned manifesto makes no difference.
I am confident that Congress/INDIA will win and BJP/NDA will lose. I do not believe any of the opinion polls and they are all rigged by Adani-Ambani media. I am extremely active on social media and everyone I see on Facebook will be voting for Congress/INDIA. So why should I trust opinion polls?
I've been looking at some pro-BJP handles on X this morning. They are universally complaining about the low turnout and are very worried. The assessment is that the BJP got a pounding yesterday because the middle classes stayed at home chilling from the heat, while the poor turned up en masse to vote for INDIA, with heavy Muslim vote consolidation to prevent vote splitting. So round one goes to INDIA.
May I also please request the readers of LI to please cast their vote. It is the first ever election for our generation and we can save India from becoming a fascist dictatorship, so please don't skip it.
You people are just clueless. Prob first years? Let me tell you that I am interning with a top Senior Advocate. In both SC and Del HC circles everyone is saying that Modi will win. Maybe not 400+, but 310+ definitely.
By the time you graduate, most of you will be BJP supporters. Yes there will be incorrigibly selfish people who have been brainwashed into unthinking uncomplicated atheism and hedonism and just want to f around and get high and enjoy life and not care about anything else. But those rotten eggs aside, most of you will be BJP supporters and all this ‘fascism’ ‘dictatorship’ talk will sound silly to you. Take care.
2 phases over. Weak turnout in many constituencies because of the heat. MSM reports say BJP worried, because its voters are not showing up while turnout among communities opposed to it (Muslims, Jats, Yadav etc) has been high.
Modi promised 400, but they the BJP/NDA will probably end up with 200-250 and so will INDIA. This means freelance parties not in any alliance, like YSRCP, TMC and BJD, will be key. Possibly Naveen Patnaik or Mamata Banerjee will be offered the PM post by INDIA in exchange for support. That’s my prediction.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/its-not-done-dusted/articleshow/109409800.cms
https://m.economictimes.com/opinion/et-commentary/view-this-summer-is-important-but-dont-make-voting-too-hot/amp_articleshow/109411022.cms
1999 - 60% (BJP 182, INC 114) 2004 - 58% (BJP 138, INC 145)) 2009 - 58.2% (BJP 116, INC 206) 2014 - 66.4% (BJP 282, INC 44) 2019 - 67.4% (BJP 303, INC 52)
May I also please request the readers of LI to please cast their vote. It is the first ever election for our generation and we can save India from becoming a fascist dictatorship, so please don't skip it.
Modi promised 400, but they the BJP/NDA will probably end up with 200-250 and so will INDIA. This means freelance parties not in any alliance, like YSRCP, TMC and BJD, will be key. Possibly Naveen Patnaik or Mamata Banerjee will be offered the PM post by INDIA in exchange for support. That’s my prediction.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/bjp-to-step-up-outreach-after-dip-in-voter-turnouts-101714245434755-amp.html