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If you’re so interested in the macro view, check out the interest rates historically (particularly during Volcker’s time) and compare them to what it is now and what people expect it to be in 2023/2024.
This too shall pass. I don’t think we need to worry about US interest rates. In a worst case scenario, EMs will be the bright spot in the world.
From a legal perspective,
Still we have less than 20K judges when the country clearly needs atleast 40K judges. Most of the states hire the same number in PCSJ/Judicial Exams at the rate they hired in 2000's.
Law Minister told about some Jugaad which will never work - Conciliation and Mediation BS and Indian Judicial Services-which will be as foolish as demonetisation in a country where there are hundreds of local languages and judges need to be thorough with the local language to even sit in a Trial.
GST- Flawed Implementation.
NCLT and Commercial Courts - Takes years to get something enforced.
High Courts and Supreme Court - Still no transparency in appointments. Thousands of vacancies.
Foreign Law Firms
It was predicted that Modi Government would crush Indian Big 6/SILF Lobbying and allow foreign law firms to enter India.
Still no change in that?
Arbitration?
Some Amendments here and there. Still not good enough.
So stop blaming some powerless opposition party when BJP has the majority.
- clear labor laws [better incentives, less uncertainty over costs, higher investment, more FDI, more work for lawyers]
- IBC working properly [more value preservation, more IBC lawyers, more Big 4 work]
- better infra (roads, ports) to integrate to the global supply chain [more project finance, banking lawyers]
- several thousand more judges to improve our contract enforceability score [more jobs for junior judges]
- giving up Vodafone and Cairn tax demands and no tax law surprises in future [less tax uncertainty, more FDI, more work for lawyers]
- enforcing foreign arbitral awards consistently [less uncertainty, more FDI, more work for lawyers]
- not passing ridiculous laws in a nationalistic zeal (see developments in Big Tech, ecommerce) [less uncertainty, more FDI, more work for lawyers]
For context: KCO hired 55 from Batch of 2021. Big 7 roughly hire 350 per year. Next 7-10 firms hire another 250.
So 600 spots in law firms for a batch. One batch from 15 NLUs + JGLS + Symbi, ILS, Christ, IP, Nirma etc: More than 3000 lawyers. I have seen out of these 3000, at least 70% want to join law firms. So 600 spots for 2100 grads. 28 spots for every 100 grads.
If the above happens, number of lawyers hired by law firms will increase from 600. If growth slows, 600 will fall drastically. 28 spots for 100 grads is already tough. It will become much tougher.
About your comment on the PM etc., please remember when crisis occur, the the cry for justice is bound to be loud. Its a recurrence, historically speaking.
Also, creating more clerkships is not any kind of solution: clerkships job matter only when your work translates into something useful - you need judges who understand how to use their clerks rather than just create more posts. Junior judges, definitely agree.
- easy, faster and certain land acquisition
- clear labor laws
- IBC working properly
- better infra (roads, ports) to integrate to the global supply chain
- several thousand more judges to improve our contract enforceability score
- giving up Vodafone and Cairn tax demands and no tax law surprises in future
- enforcing foreign arbitral awards consistently
- not passing ridiculous laws in a nationalistic zeal (see developments in Big Tech, ecommerce)
Left liberals have an equally important role to play in this rather than simply hating the PM and criticizing everything. Due to this, their criticism loses legitimacy and those who don't agree with them don't want to engage at all. But I do agree that this government's work so far has not been satisfactory on many counts.
Now, if these things don't happen then growth will be slow and given the thousands of law graduates who enter the market every year will have to quit law. Law firms still hire a very tiny proportion of all graduates. It will become smaller further and given so many people have so many contacts, getting in on your work will be near impossible.
Some other reforms that may help law graduates:
- allow advertising by lawyers (the well-off ones are doing it anyway through different means)
- allow lawyers to work part-time
- create more posts for judicial clerkships and junior judges
Now, there is constant chatter of US raising the interest rates and the impact/effect that it would have on emerging markets such as India (see ex-RBI gov Subbarao's piece here: https://www.ft.com/content/30652b8d-8aff-444a-a703-fd8582058c69). A downturn in the markets and the economy in terms of credit and its general well-being (besides what is already happening in terms of unemployment and crisis) is a troubling but very real possibility for the times ahead. (recall 2013, here: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-india-of-2013-is-not-the-india-of-1991/article5068745.ece and here: https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2013/aug/19/india-financial-crisis-rupee-stock-markets)
I want to understand (since we have all only seen good times): what does this mean for the law firms on the road ahead? How do/will they cope with this downturn? (Is it time to for low hiring? loss of jobs (sorry to bring it up)?) What is it like at a law-firm in an economic downturn of this scale? Is the general doom and gloom of today going to keep on going for the months ahead? What do these large scale changes to the essentials of fiscal policy mean for law firm business?