In just a few days I’m down almost 9 lakhs across directs trades and probably more in MFs. Most people in my circle (tier 1 firm) are saying it’s just profit booking and nothing to worry about. My stocks will rise soon and I’ll make a good profit. But I have an ill-feeling that this not the reason, because in the past when this happened my stocks didn’t fall to such a big extent. It’s just going down and down like never before. If you look outside mainstream media and on social media, there is a lot of chatter saying that the BJP could fall to 230 seats and we could see an unstable coalition in power, with opportunistic rogues like Ajit Pawar and Kumaraswamy pulling the strings and getting important portfolios. I suspect this is the actual reason.
What does everyone here think and what’s the gossip in your law firms? How are your stocks doing?
Elections bring about unstable markets for some time at least. That's an age old trend. These elections are very, very intensely contested, more so than the 2019 ones. The 2019 results were clear as day, the BJP-majority and BJP-led NDA was going to form the Central Government second time over, no matter what. That degree of certainty, dies not present itself this time around. These elections are going to be contested till the very last phase, and tides could sway in either coalition's favour.
Says who? Cite some sources. It feels more like a social media vibe that NDA would not get a majority - like people simply want to make these claims because it grabs attention, without providing any supporting data. You can spot this trend in this thread itself - "I heard BJP may not get a full majority" heard from who? where? From some lame ass Whatsapp forward?
"BJP is going to win elections" is the most uninteresting title for any media house. However, news articles like "BJP will loose majority", "BJP will not form super majority", "BJP will not go 400 par" will get more hits - as simple as that.
I was surprised to see that the 'Japan Times' had run an article which said BJP will suffer a defeat in these elections, but only to find out at the end of the article that it was written by Shashi Tharoor 😂. In fact, most of these 'BJP losing majority' articles that I read, were simply new articles quoting opposition leaders saying the same (most of these articles were simply quoting or referencing Tharoor).
I think its better to take money off and realise some of the profits instead of just having notional profit. Also, have heard the same thing that BJP may not get as many seats as they are hoping and market is trying to price any shock so that if that happens, there is not much euphoria. But if it doesn't happen then market recovers and stabalises.
Have few challenges at my end, otherwise I would love to sell some of my positions and pocket the money.
Down 9 lakhs in just a few days? lol what did you invest all your portfolio into Kotak? Which stocks did you invest into? Sounds like you just picked out stocks yourself on a whim. Also dude NIFTY was near its all time high in the past few days, it was bound to do course correction from there - you do not enter markets during an all time high! It would be better to wait till election poll results come out and then decide again. For eg if the polls would indicate that NDA would need an alliance to form a majority, then markets might fall again.
Stock market & elections: What to do if BJP wins 300-330 or below seats in Lok Sabha polls? ===============================================================================================
The Sensex has risen today and one of the companies where I have invested has done well. It even survived the crash earlier this week. This is a company in the infra sector (not Adani) which will benefit from a Modi third term, as Modi will likely continue his infra push. So, to me, this company's stock rising is a sign that Modi is returning with a comfortable majority --- maybe not 400 seats but 320 to 350.
I personally think people are getting unnecessarily worried about the turnout. How do we know the people who didn't turn up to vote are not Congress voters? Why should we assume that Muslims had higher turnout? Maybe there has been a dip in Muslim voter turnout this time, as they don't see the Congress as a suitable challenger? Let's wait till at least 1 June when the exit poll data is out, instead of being swayed by armchair Twitter analysts.
Wow, LI readers really do hate the BJP don’t they! 😅 Linking a BJP victory to a stock indices rise (and a BJP defeat to a fall) gets mass downvoted, even though all economic experts speak of this link. I really don’t understand you guys. It’s a well known fact that the Left is more interested in social justice and economic redistribution than macroeconomic growth. Even Amartya Sen has criticised Jagdish Bhagwati for looking at GDP figures and said that sacrificing lower GDP growth for redistribution and welfare is preferable. So what’s wrong in saying that a victory by the INDIA alliance will lead to a stock market fall, because redistribution and welfare will receive more priority than GDP growth???
Classic case of woke LI readers wanting to have their cake and eat it too, without doing basic reading of the Sen-Bhagwati debate.
Don't speculate with people who don't take time to understand the market. The problem with post-2020 investors is that you all have never seen a correction. Don't panic. Yes, you should have booked profits if you're a trader. You should have also had stop-losses if you are a trader. If you are an investor and you trust the fundamemtals of your stocks, then just stick to your timeline. Perhaps tweak your SIPs at best. Nothig else.
Call me a sceptic, but I think the rebound is overly optimistic and the NDA will not cross 400. Even in yesterday’s phase the turnout dipped. In every phase the middle class is staying at home, while Muslims, Yadavs and Jats are consolidating. I think the market will crash in June and it’s best to either move your money to pro-Congress companies or just park it in an FD.
What does everyone here think and what’s the gossip in your law firms? How are your stocks doing?
Secondly, we've had a bull market for awhile, correction gonna correction
Third, if you have MFs, hodl
I was surprised to see that the 'Japan Times' had run an article which said BJP will suffer a defeat in these elections, but only to find out at the end of the article that it was written by Shashi Tharoor 😂. In fact, most of these 'BJP losing majority' articles that I read, were simply new articles quoting opposition leaders saying the same (most of these articles were simply quoting or referencing Tharoor).
Have few challenges at my end, otherwise I would love to sell some of my positions and pocket the money.
absolutely not the same thing
Stock market & elections: What to do if BJP wins 300-330 or below seats in Lok Sabha polls?
===============================================================================================
https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/company-stock/story/stock-market-elections-what-to-do-if-bjp-wins-300-330-or-below-seats-in-lok-sabha-polls-428885-2024-05-09
I personally think people are getting unnecessarily worried about the turnout. How do we know the people who didn't turn up to vote are not Congress voters? Why should we assume that Muslims had higher turnout? Maybe there has been a dip in Muslim voter turnout this time, as they don't see the Congress as a suitable challenger? Let's wait till at least 1 June when the exit poll data is out, instead of being swayed by armchair Twitter analysts.
Classic case of woke LI readers wanting to have their cake and eat it too, without doing basic reading of the Sen-Bhagwati debate.
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https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/markets-rebound-on-shahs-400-call/amp_articleshow/110098240.cms
Call me a sceptic, but I think the rebound is overly optimistic and the NDA will not cross 400. Even in yesterday’s phase the turnout dipped. In every phase the middle class is staying at home, while Muslims, Yadavs and Jats are consolidating. I think the market will crash in June and it’s best to either move your money to pro-Congress companies or just park it in an FD.