Sirs,
After the brutal Delhi rape we looked at Census and Un-Employment data to explain why things are getting so dangerous for women in India.
Our findings are in the form of the article on the link below which goes into issues that no analyst has written about. The data reveals two different and distinct behaviour patterns based on different contextual backgrounds.
http://www.slideshare.net/AshishPuntambekar/rising-crime-and-the-role-of-the-planning-commission
Very briefly … our analysis indicates that at a macro level crime in India ( mostly theft ) is set to rise by between 300 % - 500 % by 2018.This is mainly because by 2018, over 200 Million young people are expected to enter the working age group and there are currently no jobs planned for these people. This will greatly add to the problem of the 112 Million already un-employed in India.
We are not saying that all the 200 Million young people coming into the working age group are potential criminals, What we are saying however is that globally there is a fair correlation between unemployment and theft ... so with rapidly rising unemployment it is expected that the cases of theft will also rise sharply in India. This is already happening ( increased incidents of chain snatchings, robbing the elderly etc ) .
The observation however is that the number of rape cases is also rising sharply in India and that they are getting increasingly brutal. This cannot be explained by just a rise in unemployment as rape implies extreme moral turpitude.
Primary Reason for Increasing Rape Cases in India
One could imagine that the skewed sex ratio that we currently have in India would create difficulties for young men in finding a marriage partner. But even a skewed sex ratio cannot by any stretch of imagination be responsible for with what we are witnessing in India ( i.e Brutal Gang Assault ) on females of all ages ranging from 2 months to 70 year olds .
What then might be responsible for rising rape , if it is not rising unemployment and a skewed sex ratio ?
A hint of the truth is visible if we go into the backgrounds of the rapists involved in the recent case in Delhi. The Nataraja Foundation is of the view that it is not a mere coincidence that all the Delhi case rapists were from one particular area with very poor secondary school capacity and the lowest teacher quality.
Planning Commission data reveals that there is a huge shortage of 5,00,000 ( 5 lakh ) Secondary schools across India. A 2007 NUEPA ( National Institute of Educational Planning and Administration) report in addition also reveals that only 46% of teachers in India have passed their class XII exams. In Bihar only 21 % of teachers have studied beyond class X.
Given this hard data , it appears that both an acute shortage of secondary schools and very poor teacher quality have combined to destroy the national system of values that we had, the most fundamental of which is respect for women as equals.
Specifically , then we ask " Has poor teacher Quality amid a huge shortage of Secondary Schools, have something to do with the increasing cases of Rape in India as also their brutality ? "
Nataraja Foundation View
I. Expect a 300 % increase in Rape Cases also
The view of the Nataraja Foundation is that there is a definite link between ( Shortage of Secondary Schools + Poor Teacher Quality ) and increasing incidents of rape. We also believe that crimes against women ( Including Rape ) will rise at nearly the same rate as theft, mainly due to the huge fall in Teacher Quality in India. In fact we believe that by 2018 -2020 India might well be the most dangerous place on earth for women.
II. Fixing Responsibility for a rise in Crime and Rape in India
A second question then arises.
Are the Police and a slow judicial process responsible for a rise in rape ? This is an important question because in the recent case everyone was blaming the police and the slow judicial process.
Our view here again is that the Police and the slow Judicial system may be responsible for just 10 % of the problem. They are in fact fighting an uphill battle against the first symptoms of a Giant Tsunami of crime that will hit India by 2018.
The real reasons for rising rape lie elsewhere ... in Yojana Bhavan ( Planning Commission ) and the Ministry of HRD ( Shastri Bhavan ) in New Delhi.
It is quite clear that soon after the 2001 census, the Planning Commission and the Ministry of HRD / PMO in general were fully aware that there had been a huge increase in the Population in the period 1998 - 2001. By 2004 - 05 there was no doubt and it was indeed public knowledge that a " demographic supernova " had gone off in India circa 1998 – 2001 and was beginning to loudly announce itself in the then 7- 11 year segment of the population.
The Planning Commission, the Ministry of HRD and the PMO must have realized that their actions starting in 2004 - 05 would be critical. But the fact is ... they did absolutely nothing on two specific counts :
1.They did not initiate a single, sustainable employment generation project for the next 8 years ... that could employ even a fraction of the 200 Million young people that they knew would join the workforce by 2018
2.They did not do anything about building more secondary schools ... so over 150 Million children dropped out of school after class V ... because there were no schools to go to.
III. Identification of the Epicenter of rising crime and rape in India :
1. An indifferent Planning Commission is the defacto "Epicenter"of the problem of rising crime in India ( including rape ) and its in-action in the matter of project initiation over the last 8 years has caused immense damage.
2. Both the Planning Commission and the all important Ministry of HRD failed miserably in their responsibility to initiate projects to build more secondary schools and specifically to create schemes that would make the teaching career more attractive. Due to this incompetence , India is paying a very heavy price in terms of loss of GDP and lawlessness because both these organizations went to deep sleep in 2004 – 05.
The Ministry of HRD needs to explain why it did not see the need to build more secondary schools and help the state Governments with funding when they were aware that India was short of 5 lakh secondary schools.
The Money was there but still they did nothing. The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank had cleared US $ 15.6 Billion in financing in 2005-07 for development projects for India ... but this money was not even lifted. In fact India has been paying a Rs 250 Crore commitment charge each year ... but is not lifting this money.
Today, the Government is telling us that FDI in retail will generate just 10 Million jobs and calling it a big achievement , the truth however is that this is nowhere near the asking rate.
IV. Possible solutions :
Given the above facts, there could be a slight shift in the forecast for a dramatic rise in crime ...maybe 2018 could become 2020. This means that India's course appears to be set " in concrete " ... unless :
1. Pending Infrastructure projects with large employment potential are cleared ... fast
2. A Massive Secondary Education Programme is launched ... immediately
From a Macro perspective, all we needed to do was to treat our Teachers properly and make the Teaching profession a financially rewarding proposition for the young graduate. If we had done this we would have not only achieved all our GDP targets but also would have made India a more just society free of crime . All of this means that Making Teaching an attractive financial proposition is the cheapest way of fixing the Indian Economy.
V. Questions :
1. Can the fallout still be minimized if the Govt. acts ... even now ??? ... We dont know ... We can only hope .
2. The killers in this particular ( Delhi Rape ) case will hang ...but what about those in Government who have made this country unsafe for our Mothers, Sisters , wifes and daughters.
YES ... Even our Mothers are no longer safe...because they have started raping 70 year olds as well.
Pls scan through the article on the link ( above ) ... The numbers never lie.
Sincerely,
Ashish Puntambekar
Trustee, The Nataraja Foundation
Project Designer
The Indian Education Megaproject ... high quality education to 126 Million Children, totally free of cost
http://www.nataraja.org.in/masseducationproject.htm
Men and nations behave wisely once they have exhausted all the other alternatives - Abba Eban